Oversold

DUOL

Valuation67/ 100
Cash flow & growth89/ 100
Upside potential46/ 100
Risk potential46/ 100

DUOL's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are above averages, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score rose 5 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 5.1%, from $146.98 to $154.46.

Valuation and price changes added 4.8 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 17.2× versus the full-history median of 148.8× shown in the valuation table, producing 67.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 67.2/100. The model applies a -8.6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 116.4× (18-month half-life). A reliable earnings-based price target is unavailable. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +29.4%, earnings +247.5%, operating margin +4.5 percentage points. Free cash flow is 35.4% of revenue. The business score is 89.1/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 39.2% upside, or about $200.00.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 32.2%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 45.8% downside, or about $77.87, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

DUOL vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE17x149x88% lower
PE percentile245053% lower
EPS$8.34$0.94783% higher
FCF$405.2M$180.8M124% higher
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DUOL’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

DUOL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsStrong decline
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

DUOL’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

DUOL PE Valuation

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This table applies DUOL's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

DUOL Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks DUOL's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

DUOL Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks DUOL's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

DUOL Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks DUOL's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

DUOL Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in DUOL's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

DUOL Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

DUOL PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares DUOL's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

DUOL Weekly Price

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This chart uses DUOL's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

DUOL Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares DUOL's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

DUOL Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.