The score fell 10 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 2.1%, from $105.62 to $103.41.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 9.4 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Historical cheapness: current PE is 22.3× versus the full-history median of 13.3× shown in the valuation table, producing 20.4/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 19.3/100. The model applies a 7% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 17.6× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 19.6× PE and $5.5 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +14.7%, earnings +6.9%, operating margin -0.9 percentage points. Free cash flow is 20.2% of revenue. The business score is 66.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $5.55 of EPS and a 19.6× PE, suggesting about $108.52 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $123.91. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $4.15 of EPS and a 18.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $77.97 — 28% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Historical cheapness: current PE is 22× versus the full-history median of 23.8× shown in the valuation table, producing 55.3/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 53/100. The model applies a 6.3% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 23.9× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 23.7× PE and $10.7 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +0.3%, earnings +3.3%, operating margin -0.1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 1.4% of revenue. The business score is 51.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $10.68 of EPS and a 23.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $252.89. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 23.8% upside, or about $252.90.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $7.84 of EPS and a 18.1× PE, suggesting a share price of about $142.13 — 30% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.