Oversold

EC

Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth56/ 100
Upside potential37/ 100
Risk potential31/ 100

EC's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are below averages and expected margin pressure limits the outlook, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 4.5%, from $16.50 to $17.25. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 0.3 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -5%, earnings +0.3%, operating margin +1.1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 11.3% of revenue. The business score is 55.5/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 18.5% upside, or about $21.03.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

The 31.1% downside is driven by operating stress: the model assumes earnings fall 20.2% and the PE falls 13.7%. That gives $1.30 per share at a 9.4× PE, or about $12.22. Price swings alone suggest 28% downside.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

EC vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE11x5.7x91% higher
PE percentile945088% higher
EPS$1.63$1.8110% lower
FCF$3.7B$4.2B11% lower
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EC’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

EC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

EC’s outlook is mixed, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

EC PE Valuation

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This table applies EC's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

EC Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks EC's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

EC Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks EC's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

EC Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks EC's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

EC Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in EC's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

EC Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

EC PE vs Energy Sector

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This chart compares EC's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Energy sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

EC Weekly Price

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This chart uses EC's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

EC Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares EC's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

EC Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.