Oversold

ECPG

Valuation38/ 100
Cash flow & growth76/ 100
Upside potential50/ 100
Risk potential31/ 100

ECPG's valuation is somewhat elevated while fundamentals provide solid support and expected margin pressure limits the outlook, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 5 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 1.7%, from $98.94 to $97.30.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 5.5 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 7.5× versus the full-history median of 5.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 34.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 38.3/100. The model applies a 26.1% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 6.4× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 7.3× PE and $18 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +29.4%, operating margin +20.6 percentage points. The business score is 75.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $18.05 of EPS and a 7.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $132.22. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 34.2% upside, or about $132.27.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $11.31 of EPS and a 6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $68.00 — 31% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ECPG vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE7.5x273x97% lower
PE percentile795059% higher
EPS$13.21$3.54273% higher
FCF$130M$172.8M25% lower
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ECPG’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

ECPG Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

ECPG’s outlook is mixed, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

ECPG PE Valuation

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This table applies ECPG's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ECPG Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ECPG's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ECPG Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ECPG's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ECPG Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ECPG's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ECPG Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ECPG's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ECPG Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ECPG PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares ECPG's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ECPG Weekly Price

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This chart uses ECPG's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ECPG Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ECPG's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ECPG Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

SOFI

Same as last week
Valuation62/ 100
Cash flow & growth73/ 100
Upside potential70/ 100
Risk potential23/ 100

SOFI's valuation appears fair while fundamentals provide solid support and forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 36.1× versus the full-history median of 43× shown in the valuation table, producing 57.4/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 61.6/100. The model applies a 36.4% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 39.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 40.7× PE and $0.7 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +34.2%, earnings -3%, operating margin +5.6 percentage points. The business score is 72.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $0.71 of EPS and a 40.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $28.81. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 66.3% upside, or about $28.80.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.42 of EPS and a 31.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $13.27 — 23% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

SOFI vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE36x47x24% lower
PE percentile315038% lower
EPS$0.48-$1.20$1.68 higher
FCF-$5B-$3.6B-$1.3B
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SOFI’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

SOFI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

SOFI’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

SOFI PE Valuation

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This table applies SOFI's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

SOFI Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks SOFI's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

SOFI Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks SOFI's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

SOFI Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks SOFI's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

SOFI Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in SOFI's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

SOFI Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

SOFI PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares SOFI's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

SOFI Weekly Price

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This chart uses SOFI's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

SOFI Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares SOFI's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

SOFI Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.