Oversold

EXC

Same as last week
Valuation49/ 100
Cash flow & growth53/ 100
Upside potential46/ 100
Risk potential21/ 100

EXC's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed and the outlook sends mixed signals, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 15.8× versus the full-history median of 15.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 50.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 49.2/100. The model applies a 7.9% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 16.2× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 16.3× PE and $3.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +6.6%, earnings +4.2%, operating margin +0.8 percentage points. Free cash flow is -7.6% of revenue. The business score is 53.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $3.20 of EPS and a 16.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $52.03. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 20.6% upside, or about $52.05.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.31 of EPS and a 14.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $34.29 — 21% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

EXC vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE16x16x1% lower
PE percentile51502% higher
EPS$2.74$2.2721% higher
FCF-$1.9B-$3B+$1.1B
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EXC’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

EXC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

EXC’s outlook is mixed, though analyst coverage is limited.

EXC PE Valuation

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This table applies EXC's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

EXC Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks EXC's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

EXC Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks EXC's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

EXC Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks EXC's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

EXC Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in EXC's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

EXC Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

EXC PE vs Utilities Sector

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This chart compares EXC's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Utilities sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

EXC Weekly Price

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This chart uses EXC's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

EXC Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares EXC's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

EXC Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.