Oversold

FCPT

Valuation35/ 100
Cash flow & growth57/ 100
Upside potential38/ 100
Risk potential16/ 100

FCPT's valuation is somewhat elevated, fundamentals are somewhat mixed and expected margin pressure limits the outlook, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 1.2%, from $25.23 to $24.93. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 0.2 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 21.6× versus the full-history median of 19.7× shown in the valuation table, producing 43.7/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 35.2/100. The model applies a -3.5% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 22.1× (18-month half-life). A reliable earnings-based price target is unavailable. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +9.6%, earnings +2.8%, operating margin -0.1 percentage points. The business score is 56.5/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 15% upside, or about $27.57. This uses the 15% minimum allowance.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 16.1% downside, or about $20.11, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

FCPT vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE22x20x7% higher
PE percentile775054% higher
EPS$1.11$1.110%
FCF$194.8M$146M33% higher
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FCPT’s cash flow is above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

FCPT Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStable
Forward earningsStable
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

FCPT’s outlook is mixed, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

FCPT PE Valuation

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This table applies FCPT's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

FCPT Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks FCPT's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

FCPT Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks FCPT's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

FCPT Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks FCPT's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

FCPT Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in FCPT's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

FCPT Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

FCPT PE vs Real Estate Sector

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This chart compares FCPT's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Real Estate sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

FCPT Weekly Price

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This chart uses FCPT's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

FCPT Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares FCPT's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

FCPT Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.