Historical cheapness: current PE is 21.3× versus the full-history median of 20.5× shown in the valuation table, producing 47.3/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 42.1/100. The model applies a 2% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 21.9× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 21.6× PE and $11.7 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +3.7%, earnings +12%. Free cash flow is 4% of revenue. The business score is 57.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $11.74 of EPS and a 21.6× PE, suggesting about $253.80 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $255.92. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $8.35 of EPS and a 19.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $163.07 — 27% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.