The score fell 7 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 0.3%, from $21.16 to $21.10.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 7.2 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Historical cheapness: current PE is 20.3× versus the full-history median of 7.1× shown in the valuation table, producing 27.1/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 27.1/100. The model applies a 9.6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 8.6× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 17.3× PE and $1.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: earnings -40%. Free cash flow is 25.4% of revenue. The business score is 53.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $1.21 of EPS and a 17.3× PE, suggesting about $20.88 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $23.82. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.86 of EPS and a 15.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $13.58 — 34% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.