Historical cheapness: current PE is 10.9× versus the full-history median of 9.8× shown in the valuation table, producing 42.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 42.2/100. The model applies a 9.4% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 10.9× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 11.1× PE and $2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +3.7%, earnings +31.3%, operating margin +5.2 percentage points. The business score is 68.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $1.98 of EPS and a 11.1× PE, suggesting a share price of about $22.01 — 20% above today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.43 of EPS and a 9.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $13.42 — 27% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.