Oversold

GBX

Valuation41/ 100
Cash flow & growth21/ 100
Upside potential16/ 100
Risk potential57/ 100

GBX's valuation appears fair, weak fundamentals weigh on the score, while forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 6 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 5.8%, from $45.91 to $43.26.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 5.5 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 12.7× versus the full-history median of 13.8× shown in the valuation table, producing 55.7/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 41.3/100. The model applies a -10.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 11.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 12.6× PE and $3.5 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue -25.6%, earnings -51.7%, operating margin -3.9 percentage points. Free cash flow is -4.5% of revenue. The business score is 20.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $3.47 of EPS and a 12.6× PE, suggesting about $43.62 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $49.55. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.09 of EPS and a 8.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $18.58 — 57% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

GBX vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE13x86x85% lower
PE percentile445012% lower
EPS$3.40$3.0312% higher
FCF-$118.6M-$148.1M+$29.5M
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GBX’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

GBX Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

GBX’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

GBX PE Valuation

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This table applies GBX's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

GBX Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks GBX's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

GBX Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks GBX's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

GBX Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks GBX's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

GBX Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in GBX's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

GBX Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

GBX PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares GBX's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

GBX Weekly Price

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This chart uses GBX's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

GBX Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares GBX's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

GBX Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.