Oversold

GEL

Valuation6/ 100
Cash flow & growth62/ 100
Upside potential20/ 100
Risk potential40/ 100

GEL's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are somewhat mixed and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 1.3%, from $16.06 to $15.85.

The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 78.2× versus the full-history median of 13.6× shown in the valuation table, producing 6.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 6.4/100. The model applies a -2.9% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 72.4× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 68.4× PE and $0.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -17.3%, operating margin +11.5 percentage points. Free cash flow is 18.8% of revenue. The business score is 62.1/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $0.22 of EPS and a 68.4× PE, suggesting about $14.75 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $17.93. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.15 of EPS and a 63.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $9.41 — 40% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

GEL vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE78x71x11% higher
PE percentile755050% higher
EPS$0.20-$1.49$1.69 higher
FCF$344.7M-$43.8M+$388.5M
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GEL’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

GEL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsTurning negative
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

GEL’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

GEL PE Valuation

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This table applies GEL's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

GEL Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks GEL's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

GEL Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks GEL's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

GEL Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks GEL's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

GEL Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in GEL's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

GEL Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

GEL PE vs Energy Sector

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This chart compares GEL's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Energy sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

GEL Weekly Price

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This chart uses GEL's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

GEL Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares GEL's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

GEL Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.