Oversold

GEO

Valuation69/ 100
Cash flow & growth61/ 100
Upside potential52/ 100
Risk potential43/ 100

GEO's valuation is attractive while fundamentals are somewhat mixed and forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth despite pressure on margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 1.6%, from $32.28 to $31.77. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Estimated operating-earnings valuation: current PE is 32.9x versus 87.9x in comparable estimated history. The model caps earnings at operating profit after interest, assuming proportional tax and per-share effects. This is an estimate, not a verified investment-gain adjustment.

Reported EPS and PE remain in the valuation table. The same estimate is applied to historical earnings and eligible price scenarios. Its contribution to the score is limited by the available evidence; it does not identify all non-recurring items. Comparable history: 69 weeks.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +15.3%, operating margin -0.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is 5.7% of revenue. The business score is 60.8/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $1.34 of EPS and a 41× PE, suggesting a share price of about $55.03. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 74.8% upside, or about $55.04.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.83 of EPS and a 30.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $24.98 — 43% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

GEO vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE15x25x41% lower
PE percentile605020% higher
EPS$2.12$0.88140% higher
FCF$161.2M$176.1M8% lower
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GEO’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

GEO Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

GEO’s outlook is generally improving, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

GEO PE Valuation

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This table applies GEO's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

GEO Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks GEO's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

GEO Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks GEO's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

GEO Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks GEO's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

GEO Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in GEO's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

GEO Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

GEO PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares GEO's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

GEO Weekly Price

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This chart uses GEO's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

GEO Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares GEO's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

GEO Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.