Oversold

GOOGL

Valuation43/ 100
Cash flow & growth68/ 100
Upside potential47/ 100
Risk potential29/ 100

GOOGL's valuation appears fair while fundamentals provide solid support and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back.

Score change since last week

The score rose 8 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 2.3%, from $346.59 to $338.46. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 7.6 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Estimated operating-earnings valuation: current PE is 34.8x versus 26.8x in comparable estimated history. The model caps earnings at operating profit after interest, assuming proportional tax and per-share effects. This is an estimate, not a verified investment-gain adjustment.

Reported EPS and PE remain in the valuation table. The same estimate is applied to historical earnings and eligible price scenarios. Its contribution to the score is limited by the available evidence; it does not identify all non-recurring items. Comparable history: 105 weeks.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +20.1%, operating margin +0.5 percentage points. Free cash flow is 11.9% of revenue. The business score is 67.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $12.74 of EPS and a 34.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $443.73. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 31.1% upside, or about $443.77.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $8.53 of EPS and a 28.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $241.06 — 29% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

GOOGL vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE17x26x34% lower
PE percentile0.95098% lower
EPS$19.91$6.27217% higher
FCF$53.3B$65.1B18% lower
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GOOGL’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

GOOGL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsStrong decline
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionModerate

GOOGL’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

GOOGL PE Valuation

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This table applies GOOGL's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

GOOGL Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks GOOGL's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

GOOGL Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks GOOGL's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

GOOGL Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks GOOGL's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

GOOGL Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in GOOGL's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

GOOGL Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

GOOGL PE vs Communication Services Sector

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This chart compares GOOGL's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Communication Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

GOOGL Weekly Price

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This chart uses GOOGL's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

GOOGL Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares GOOGL's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

GOOGL Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

LILAK

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth69/ 100
Upside potential38/ 100
Risk potential43/ 100

LILAK's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages, but expected margin pressure limits the outlook, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +1.1%, operating margin +26.8 percentage points. Free cash flow is 8% of revenue. The business score is 68.5/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 26.1% upside, or about $11.01.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 27.1%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 43.1% downside, or about $4.97, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

LILAK vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
EPS-$0.49-$2.13$1.64 higher
FCF$357.9M$214.9M67% higher
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LILAK’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages.

LILAK Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsTurning positive
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

LILAK’s outlook is mixed, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

LILAK PE Valuation

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This table applies LILAK's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

LILAK Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks LILAK's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

LILAK Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks LILAK's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

LILAK Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks LILAK's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

LILAK Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in LILAK's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

LILAK Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

LILAK PE vs Communication Services Sector

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This chart compares LILAK's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Communication Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

LILAK Weekly Price

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This chart uses LILAK's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

LILAK Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares LILAK's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

LILAK Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.