Oversold

HCC

Same as last week
Valuation9/ 100
Cash flow & growth83/ 100
Upside potential61/ 100
Risk potential38/ 100

HCC's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are below averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 23.5× versus the full-history median of 7.5× shown in the valuation table, producing 7.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 9/100. The model applies a 35.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 23.2× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 27.6× PE and $6.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +37.5%, earnings +439.1%, operating margin +11.6 percentage points. Free cash flow is 0.4% of revenue. The business score is 83.1/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $6.15 of EPS and a 27.6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $169.80. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 73.7% upside, or about $169.83.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $3.54 of EPS and a 17.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $60.73 — 38% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

HCC vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE24x22x5% higher
PE percentile735046% higher
EPS$4.16$5.0117% lower
FCF$6.1M$172.9M96% lower
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HCC’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

HCC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

HCC’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

HCC PE Valuation

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This table applies HCC's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

HCC Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks HCC's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

HCC Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks HCC's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

HCC Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks HCC's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

HCC Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in HCC's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

HCC Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

HCC PE vs Energy Sector

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This chart compares HCC's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Energy sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

HCC Weekly Price

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This chart uses HCC's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

HCC Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares HCC's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

HCC Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.