Oversold

HCI

Valuation79/ 100
Cash flow & growth81/ 100
Upside potential55/ 100
Risk potential26/ 100

HCI's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are above averages, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score rose 8 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 0.7%, from $186.29 to $187.64.

Valuation and price changes added 8.4 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 7.6× versus the full-history median of 13× shown in the valuation table, producing 80.3/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 78.9/100. The model applies a 6.3% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 10× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 9× PE and $28 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +22.8%, earnings +116.3%, operating margin +20.7 percentage points. The business score is 81.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $28.05 of EPS and a 9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $252.10. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 35.7% upside, or about $252.04.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $20.37 of EPS and a 6.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $137.71 — 26% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

HCI vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE7.6x27x71% lower
PE percentile195061% lower
EPS$24.33$6.50274% higher
FCF$410.3M$193.7M112% higher
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HCI’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

HCI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

HCI’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

HCI PE Valuation

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This table applies HCI's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

HCI Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks HCI's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

HCI Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks HCI's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

HCI Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks HCI's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

HCI Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in HCI's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

HCI Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

HCI PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares HCI's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

HCI Weekly Price

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This chart uses HCI's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

HCI Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares HCI's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

HCI Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.