Oversold

HCSG

Valuation84/ 100
Cash flow & growth76/ 100
Upside potential67/ 100
Risk potential20/ 100

HCSG's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are above averages, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score rose 10 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 2.8%, from $22.44 to $21.82. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 9.8 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 12.8× versus the full-history median of 23.4× shown in the valuation table, producing 82.7/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 83.8/100. The model applies a 16.1% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 24× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 15.1× PE and $2.1 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +5.2%, earnings +1121.4%, operating margin +6.3 percentage points. Free cash flow is 8.1% of revenue. The business score is 76/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $2.15 of EPS and a 15.1× PE, suggesting a share price of about $32.45. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 47.6% upside, or about $32.44.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.45 of EPS and a 12.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $17.65 — 20% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

HCSG vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE13x28x54% lower
PE percentile0.95098% lower
EPS$1.71$0.69149% higher
FCF$151.5M$65M133% higher
Loading historical comparisons…

HCSG’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

HCSG Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsStrong decline
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

HCSG’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

HCSG PE Valuation

Loading pe valuation table…

This table applies HCSG's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

HCSG Earnings Per Share

Loading earnings per share…

This chart tracks HCSG's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

HCSG Quarterly Revenue

Loading quarterly revenue…

This chart tracks HCSG's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

HCSG Free Cash Flow

Loading free cash flow…

This chart tracks HCSG's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

HCSG Total Shares

Loading shares over time…

This chart tracks changes in HCSG's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

HCSG Net Leverage

Loading net leverage…

Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

HCSG PE vs Healthcare Sector

Loading pe vs sector average…

This chart compares HCSG's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Healthcare sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

HCSG Weekly Price

Loading weekly price…

This chart uses HCSG's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

HCSG Weekly Moving Averages

Loading weekly moving averages…

This chart compares HCSG's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

HCSG Yearly ROI

Loading yearly ROI…

Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.