Oversold

HDSN

Valuation8/ 100
Cash flow & growth36/ 100
Upside potential23/ 100
Risk potential33/ 100

HDSN's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are below averages and the outlook sends mixed signals, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 13 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 1.5%, from $5.43 to $5.35.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 13.2 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 27.1× versus the full-history median of 9.2× shown in the valuation table, producing 8.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 7.6/100. The model applies a 2.7% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 13.2× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 22.4× PE and $0.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue +14.3%, earnings -50.9%, operating margin -4.2 percentage points. Free cash flow is -13.4% of revenue. The business score is 36.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $0.22 of EPS and a 22.4× PE, suggesting about $4.95 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $6.15. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.16 of EPS and a 21.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $3.57 — 33% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

HDSN vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE27x12x134% higher
PE percentile985096% higher
EPS$0.20$0.8276% lower
FCF-$34.5M$37.6M192% lower
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HDSN’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

HDSN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

HDSN’s outlook is mixed, though analyst coverage is limited.

HDSN PE Valuation

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This table applies HDSN's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

HDSN Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks HDSN's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

HDSN Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks HDSN's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

HDSN Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks HDSN's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

HDSN Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in HDSN's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

HDSN Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

HDSN PE vs Basic Materials Sector

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This chart compares HDSN's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Basic Materials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

HDSN Weekly Price

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This chart uses HDSN's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

HDSN Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares HDSN's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

HDSN Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.