Oversold

HLLY

Valuation19/ 100
Cash flow & growth66/ 100
Upside potential22/ 100
Risk potential36/ 100

HLLY's valuation is expensive while fundamentals provide solid support and forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins.

Score change since last week

The score fell 10 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 4.5%, from $2.92 to $3.05. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 10.4 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 36.1× versus the full-history median of 21.2× shown in the valuation table, producing 19.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 19.2/100. The model applies a 8.9% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 19.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 28.6× PE and $0.1 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +3.3%, operating margin +5.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is 6% of revenue. The business score is 66.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $0.10 of EPS and a 28.6× PE, suggesting about $2.85 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $3.51. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.07 of EPS and a 27.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $1.95 — 36% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

HLLY vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE36x39x8% lower
PE percentile845069% higher
EPS$0.08$0.1647% lower
FCF$36.5M$36.3M1% higher
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HLLY’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

HLLY Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

HLLY’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

HLLY PE Valuation

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This table applies HLLY's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

HLLY Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks HLLY's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

HLLY Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks HLLY's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

HLLY Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks HLLY's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

HLLY Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in HLLY's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

HLLY Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

HLLY PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares HLLY's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

HLLY Weekly Price

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This chart uses HLLY's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

HLLY Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares HLLY's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

HLLY Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.