Oversold

HNRG

Valuation19/ 100
Cash flow & growth63/ 100
Upside potential40/ 100
Risk potential45/ 100

HNRG's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 9 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 2.2%, from $16.24 to $16.60. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 9.6 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 680.3× versus the full-history median of 11× shown in the valuation table, producing 18.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 18.6/100. The model applies a 14.7% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 16.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 486.9× PE and $0 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +7.3%, operating margin +48.1 percentage points. Free cash flow is -11.2% of revenue. The business score is 62.5/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $0.03 of EPS and a 486.9× PE, suggesting about $14.87 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $19.09. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.02 of EPS and a 450× PE, suggesting a share price of about $9.11 — 45% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

HNRG vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE680x27x2,425% higher
PE percentile10050102% higher
EPS$0.02-$0.67$0.69 higher
FCF-$50.5M$11.2M549% lower
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HNRG’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

HNRG Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

HNRG’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

HNRG PE Valuation

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This table applies HNRG's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

HNRG Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks HNRG's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

HNRG Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks HNRG's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

HNRG Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks HNRG's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

HNRG Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in HNRG's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

HNRG Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

HNRG PE vs Energy Sector

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This chart compares HNRG's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Energy sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

HNRG Weekly Price

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This chart uses HNRG's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

HNRG Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares HNRG's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

HNRG Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.