Historical cheapness: current PE is 21.5× versus the full-history median of 9.1× shown in the valuation table, producing 11.1/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 11.9/100. The model applies a 19.3% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 14.4× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 19.2× PE and $1.6 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue -9.8%, earnings -15.6%, operating margin -6.4 percentage points. The business score is 29.1/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $1.64 of EPS and a 19.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $31.51 — 15% above today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.09 of EPS and a 18.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $19.85 — 27% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.