Oversold

HOG

Valuation10/ 100
Cash flow & growth42/ 100
Upside potential16/ 100
Risk potential51/ 100

HOG's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are below averages and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 12 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 0.7%, from $28.10 to $28.30. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 12.1 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 17.1× versus the full-history median of 8.5× shown in the valuation table, producing 14.3/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 10.1/100. The model applies a -11.1% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 7.9× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 14.5× PE and $1.6 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -8.1%, earnings -15.5%, operating margin +0.9 percentage points. Free cash flow is -3.2% of revenue. The business score is 42.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $1.62 of EPS and a 14.5× PE, suggesting about $23.62 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $32.05. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.10 of EPS and a 12.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $13.60 — 51% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

HOG vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE17x114x85% lower
PE percentile855071% higher
EPS$1.63$3.4553% lower
FCF-$133.1M$665.5M120% lower
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HOG’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

HOG Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

HOG’s outlook is weakening, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

HOG PE Valuation

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This table applies HOG's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

HOG Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks HOG's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

HOG Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks HOG's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

HOG Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks HOG's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

HOG Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in HOG's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

HOG Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

HOG PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares HOG's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

HOG Weekly Price

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This chart uses HOG's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

HOG Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares HOG's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

HOG Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

LCID

ValuationN/A
Cash flow & growthN/A
Upside potentialN/A
Risk potentialN/A

Valuation

The valuation score compares today’s PE with recent history and similar earnings periods. Stronger growth supports a higher valuation; weaker growth lowers it. Earnings that are difficult to compare receive less weight.

Cash flow & growth

The business score reflects revenue and earnings growth, profit margins and free cash flow. Recent results show whether the business is improving or weakening. Measures must fit the business; incomplete or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Reliable data is insufficient to calculate upside.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Reliable data is insufficient to calculate downside.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

LCID vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
EPS-$13.69-$222.02$208.33 higher
FCF-$6.6B-$2.7B-$3.8B
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LCID’s earnings are above their historical averages.

LCID Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsLoss narrowing
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

LCID’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

LCID PE Valuation

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This table applies LCID's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

LCID Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks LCID's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

LCID Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks LCID's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

LCID Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks LCID's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

LCID Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in LCID's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

LCID Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

LCID PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares LCID's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

LCID Weekly Price

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This chart uses LCID's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

LCID Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares LCID's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

LCID Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.