Oversold

HOMB

Valuation45/ 100
Cash flow & growth60/ 100
Upside potential35/ 100
Risk potential25/ 100

HOMB's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and the outlook sends mixed signals, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 1.8%, from $29.62 to $30.15. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 0.5 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 12.3× versus the full-history median of 12× shown in the valuation table, producing 47.9/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 44.5/100. The model applies a 4.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 12.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 12.4× PE and $2.7 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -3.8%, earnings +11%, operating margin +5.2 percentage points. The business score is 60.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $2.74 of EPS and a 12.4× PE, suggesting about $33.92 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $34.47. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.06 of EPS and a 10.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $22.43 — 25% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

HOMB vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE12x12x2% higher
PE percentile595018% higher
EPS$2.43$1.8730% higher
FCF$429.9M$378.5M14% higher
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HOMB’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

HOMB Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStable
Forward earningsStable
Forward revenueDecline
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

HOMB’s outlook is mixed, with declining sales expectations a concern.

HOMB PE Valuation

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This table applies HOMB's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

HOMB Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks HOMB's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

HOMB Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks HOMB's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

HOMB Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks HOMB's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

HOMB Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in HOMB's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

HOMB Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

HOMB PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares HOMB's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

HOMB Weekly Price

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This chart uses HOMB's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

HOMB Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares HOMB's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

HOMB Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.