Oversold

HOOD

Valuation53/ 100
Cash flow & growth49/ 100
Upside potential47/ 100
Risk potential38/ 100

HOOD's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 2 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 17.1%, from $104.26 to $122.11. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 2.3 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 49.6× versus the full-history median of 51.1× shown in the valuation table, producing 51.7/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 53/100. The model applies a 15% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 46.9× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 49.4× PE and $2.8 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +16.6%, earnings +15.5%, operating margin -11.7 percentage points. The business score is 49.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $2.82 of EPS and a 49.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $139.46. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 23.9% upside, or about $139.47.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.93 of EPS and a 36.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $69.89 — 38% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

HOOD vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE50x60x18% lower
PE percentile48505% lower
EPS$2.27-$0.47$2.74 higher
FCF-$638M$409.4M256% lower
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HOOD’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

HOOD Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionWide

HOOD’s outlook is generally improving, though analysts differ widely on the estimates.

HOOD PE Valuation

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This table applies HOOD's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

HOOD Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks HOOD's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

HOOD Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks HOOD's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

HOOD Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks HOOD's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

HOOD Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in HOOD's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

HOOD Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

HOOD PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares HOOD's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

HOOD Weekly Price

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This chart uses HOOD's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

HOOD Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares HOOD's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

HOOD Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

UPST

Valuation65/ 100
Cash flow & growth74/ 100
Upside potential53/ 100
Risk potential24/ 100

UPST's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals provide solid support and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score rose 5 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 3.5%, from $29.08 to $28.05. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 4.9 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 50× versus the full-history median of 76.1× shown in the valuation table, producing 72.1/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 65.4/100. The model applies a -4.9% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 59.2× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 53.7× PE and $0.5 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +45.3%, operating margin +5.5 percentage points. The business score is 74/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $0.53 of EPS and a 53.7× PE, suggesting about $28.20 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $29.43. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.41 of EPS and a 47.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $19.52 — 24% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

UPST vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE50x734x93% lower
PE percentile295042% lower
EPS$0.51-$0.60$1.11 higher
FCF-$296.7M-$119.4M-$177.3M
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UPST’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

UPST Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

UPST’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

UPST PE Valuation

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This table applies UPST's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

UPST Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks UPST's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

UPST Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks UPST's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

UPST Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks UPST's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

UPST Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in UPST's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

UPST Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

UPST PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares UPST's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

UPST Weekly Price

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This chart uses UPST's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

UPST Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares UPST's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

UPST Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.