Oversold

HQY

Valuation91/ 100
Cash flow & growth77/ 100
Upside potential69/ 100
Risk potential19/ 100

HQY's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Score change since last week

The score rose 11 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 0.3%, from $96.37 to $96.07. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 11.5 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 34.8× versus the full-history median of 88.7× shown in the valuation table, producing 90.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 90.8/100. The model applies a 16.7% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 65.2× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 40.5× PE and $3.5 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +7.3%, earnings +67.4%, operating margin +1.9 percentage points. Free cash flow is 34.6% of revenue. The business score is 76.8/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $3.48 of EPS and a 40.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $141.10. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 46.6% upside, or about $141.12.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.38 of EPS and a 32.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $78.39 — 19% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

HQY vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE35x680x95% lower
PE percentile6.95086% lower
EPS$2.77$0.53420% higher
FCF$471.7M$93.2M406% higher
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HQY’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

HQY Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionTight

HQY’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

HQY PE Valuation

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This table applies HQY's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

HQY Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks HQY's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

HQY Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks HQY's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

HQY Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks HQY's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

HQY Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in HQY's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

HQY Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

HQY PE vs Healthcare Sector

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This chart compares HQY's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Healthcare sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

HQY Weekly Price

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This chart uses HQY's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

HQY Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares HQY's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

HQY Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.