Oversold

HWM

Valuation51/ 100
Cash flow & growth82/ 100
Upside potential62/ 100
Risk potential29/ 100

HWM's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 2.1%, from $264.85 to $259.27. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 0.3 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 49.5× versus the full-history median of 44.8× shown in the valuation table, producing 43.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 51.2/100. The model applies a 27.3% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 51× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 55.9× PE and $6.4 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +18.1%, earnings +35.7%, operating margin +3.9 percentage points. Free cash flow is 17.2% of revenue. The business score is 81.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $6.35 of EPS and a 55.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $355.09. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 54.6% upside, or about $354.98.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $4.05 of EPS and a 40.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $162.82 — 29% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

HWM vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE49x48x3% higher
PE percentile755050% higher
EPS$4.64$1.72169% higher
FCF$1.6B$626.5M151% higher
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HWM’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

HWM Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionTight

HWM’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

HWM PE Valuation

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This table applies HWM's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

HWM Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks HWM's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

HWM Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks HWM's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

HWM Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks HWM's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

HWM Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in HWM's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

HWM Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

HWM PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares HWM's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

HWM Weekly Price

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This chart uses HWM's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

HWM Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares HWM's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

HWM Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.