Oversold

JOE

Valuation59/ 100
Cash flow & growth80/ 100
Upside potential40/ 100
Risk potential25/ 100

JOE's valuation appears fair while strong fundamentals support the investment case and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 1.8%, from $67.32 to $66.11. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 0.3 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 30.8× versus the full-history median of 38.4× shown in the valuation table, producing 64.7/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 59.3/100. The model applies a 1.1% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 35.2× (18-month half-life). A reliable earnings-based price target is unavailable. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +28.4%, earnings +50.7%, operating margin +6.5 percentage points. The business score is 80/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 16.6% upside, or about $76.79.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 24.5% downside, or about $49.72, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

JOE vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE31x41x24% lower
PE percentile9.25082% lower
EPS$2.14$1.2670% higher
FCF$215.3M-$11.5M+$226.8M
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JOE’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

JOE Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsStrong decline
Forward revenueStrong decline
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

JOE’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

JOE PE Valuation

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This table applies JOE's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

JOE Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks JOE's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

JOE Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks JOE's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

JOE Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks JOE's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

JOE Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in JOE's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

JOE Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

JOE PE vs Real Estate Sector

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This chart compares JOE's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Real Estate sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

JOE Weekly Price

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This chart uses JOE's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

JOE Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares JOE's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

JOE Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.