Historical cheapness: current PE is 15.3× versus the full-history median of 11.1× shown in the valuation table, producing 29.3/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 29.7/100. The model applies a 11.2% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 13.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 14.6× PE and $27.9 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +8%, earnings +19.1%, operating margin +2.4 percentage points. The business score is 65/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $27.93 of EPS and a 14.6× PE, suggesting about $409.04 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $409.66. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $19.62 of EPS and a 13.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $260.74 — 27% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Historical cheapness: current PE is 12.8× versus the full-history median of 11.5× shown in the valuation table, producing 42.7/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 41.4/100. The model applies a 7.9% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 12.4× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 12.7× PE and $4.9 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +4.3%, earnings +22.6%, operating margin +5.5 percentage points. The business score is 68/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $4.87 of EPS and a 12.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $61.77 — 15% above today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $3.51 of EPS and a 10.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $37.73 — 30% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.