Oversold

KALU

Valuation85/ 100
Cash flow & growth80/ 100
Upside potential71/ 100
Risk potential22/ 100

KALU's valuation is historically cheap, strong fundamentals support the investment case, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score rose 10 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 5.0%, from $156.38 to $164.19.

Valuation and price changes added 9.2 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 11.7× versus the full-history median of 21.1× shown in the valuation table, producing 82.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 84.8/100. The model applies a 24.5% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 19.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 14.4× PE and $18.3 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +32.8%, earnings +246.8%, operating margin +4.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is 2.1% of revenue. The business score is 80/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $18.28 of EPS and a 14.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $262.51. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 67% upside, or about $262.52.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $11.39 of EPS and a 10.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $123.10 — 22% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

KALU vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE12x52x78% lower
PE percentile1.65097% lower
EPS$13.49$1.86625% higher
FCF$87M-$3.2M+$90.2M
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KALU’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

KALU Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueDecline
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

KALU’s outlook is weakening, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

KALU PE Valuation

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This table applies KALU's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

KALU Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks KALU's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

KALU Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks KALU's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

KALU Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks KALU's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

KALU Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in KALU's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

KALU Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

KALU PE vs Basic Materials Sector

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This chart compares KALU's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Basic Materials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

KALU Weekly Price

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This chart uses KALU's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

KALU Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares KALU's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

KALU Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.