Oversold

KEY

Same as last week
Valuation28/ 100
Cash flow & growth71/ 100
Upside potential53/ 100
Risk potential30/ 100

KEY's valuation is somewhat elevated while fundamentals provide solid support and forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 12.7× versus the full-history median of 8.7× shown in the valuation table, producing 26.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 27.6/100. The model applies a 16.2% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 13.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 14× PE and $2.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +13.5%, operating margin +16.6 percentage points. The business score is 71.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $2.15 of EPS and a 14× PE, suggesting a share price of about $30.04. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 37.5% upside, or about $30.03.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.48 of EPS and a 10.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $15.41 — 30% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

KEY vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE13x47x73% lower
PE percentile695037% higher
EPS$1.72$1.3528% higher
FCF$1.2B$2.2B45% lower
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KEY’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

KEY Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStrong decline
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

KEY’s outlook is generally improving, with declining sales expectations a concern.

KEY PE Valuation

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This table applies KEY's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

KEY Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks KEY's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

KEY Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks KEY's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

KEY Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks KEY's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

KEY Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in KEY's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

KEY Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

KEY PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares KEY's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

KEY Weekly Price

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This chart uses KEY's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

KEY Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares KEY's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

KEY Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.