Oversold

KREF

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth26/ 100
Upside potential33/ 100
Risk potential28/ 100

KREF's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are below averages and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue -19.6%, operating margin -38.3 percentage points. The business score is 26.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 15% upside, or about $8.80. This uses the 15% minimum allowance.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 27.9% downside, or about $5.52, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

KREF vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE50x13x270% higher
PE percentile975095% higher
EPS-$3.28$0.50755% lower
FCF$34.3M$122.6M72% lower
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KREF’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

KREF Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsLoss widening
Forward revenueStrong decline
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

KREF’s outlook is weakening, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

KREF PE Valuation

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This table applies KREF's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

KREF Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks KREF's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

KREF Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks KREF's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

KREF Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks KREF's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

KREF Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in KREF's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

KREF Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

KREF PE vs Real Estate Sector

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This chart compares KREF's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Real Estate sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

KREF Weekly Price

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This chart uses KREF's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

KREF Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares KREF's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

KREF Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.