Historical cheapness: current PE is 11.3× versus the full-history median of 8.6× shown in the valuation table, producing 32.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 31.4/100. The model applies a 8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 10.2× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 10.6× PE and $2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -2.2%, earnings +15.3%, operating margin +4.4 percentage points. The business score is 61.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $2.02 of EPS and a 10.6× PE, suggesting about $21.47 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $22.46. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.46 of EPS and a 9.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $13.75 — 30% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.