Oversold

LYG

Valuation16/ 100
Cash flow & growth59/ 100
Upside potential43/ 100
Risk potential24/ 100

LYG's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 10 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 2.7%, from $5.92 to $6.08. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 10.4 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 14× versus the full-history median of 7.1× shown in the valuation table, producing 15/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 16.1/100. The model applies a 23% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 12.1× (18-month half-life). A reliable earnings-based price target is unavailable. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +40.4%, earnings +24.5%. The business score is 58.8/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 18.1% upside, or about $7.10.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 24.3% downside, or about $4.55, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

LYG vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE14x8.9x57% higher
PE percentile875074% higher
EPS$0.43$0.3331% higher
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LYG’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

LYG Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStrong decline
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

LYG’s outlook is generally improving, with declining sales expectations a concern.

LYG PE Valuation

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This table applies LYG's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

LYG Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks LYG's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

LYG Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks LYG's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

LYG Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks LYG's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

LYG Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in LYG's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

LYG Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

LYG PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares LYG's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

LYG Weekly Price

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This chart uses LYG's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

LYG Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares LYG's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

LYG Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.