Oversold

MAT

Valuation64/ 100
Cash flow & growth46/ 100
Upside potential57/ 100
Risk potential19/ 100

MAT's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 4.0%, from $15.14 to $14.53. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 0.6 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 10.5× versus the full-history median of 13.1× shown in the valuation table, producing 65.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 64.1/100. The model applies a 8.1% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 12.2× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 11.6× PE and $1.6 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +2.9%, earnings -13%, operating margin -4.1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 11.4% of revenue. The business score is 45.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $1.57 of EPS and a 11.6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $18.23 — 30% above today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.13 of EPS and a 10× PE, suggesting a share price of about $11.30 — 19% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

MAT vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE10x22x52% lower
PE percentile265047% lower
EPS$1.34$1.2210% higher
FCF$626.5M$435.1M44% higher
Loading historical comparisons…

MAT’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

MAT Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

MAT’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

MAT PE Valuation

Loading pe valuation table…

This table applies MAT's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

MAT Earnings Per Share

Loading earnings per share…

This chart tracks MAT's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

MAT Quarterly Revenue

Loading quarterly revenue…

This chart tracks MAT's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

MAT Free Cash Flow

Loading free cash flow…

This chart tracks MAT's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

MAT Total Shares

Loading shares over time…

This chart tracks changes in MAT's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

MAT Net Leverage

Loading net leverage…

Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

MAT PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

Loading pe vs sector average…

This chart compares MAT's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

MAT Weekly Price

Loading weekly price…

This chart uses MAT's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

MAT Weekly Moving Averages

Loading weekly moving averages…

This chart compares MAT's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

MAT Yearly ROI

Loading yearly ROI…

Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

TSLA

Valuation11/ 100
Cash flow & growth50/ 100
Upside potential22/ 100
Risk potential36/ 100

TSLA's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 13 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 1.5%, from $348.75 to $354.08. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 12.4 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 338.4× versus the full-history median of 151.3× shown in the valuation table, producing 12/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 10.9/100. The model applies a 3.6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 174.8× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 265.1× PE and $1.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +11.8%, earnings -37.5%, operating margin -1.8 percentage points. Free cash flow is 5.6% of revenue. The business score is 49.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $1.21 of EPS and a 265.1× PE, suggesting about $320.10 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $420.26. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.91 of EPS and a 254.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $232.32 — 36% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

TSLA vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE338x275x23% higher
PE percentile785056% higher
EPS$1.08$2.3554% lower
FCF$5.8B$4.9B19% higher
Loading historical comparisons…

TSLA’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

TSLA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionWide

TSLA’s outlook is generally improving, though analysts differ widely on the estimates.

TSLA PE Valuation

Loading pe valuation table…

This table applies TSLA's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

TSLA Earnings Per Share

Loading earnings per share…

This chart tracks TSLA's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

TSLA Quarterly Revenue

Loading quarterly revenue…

This chart tracks TSLA's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

TSLA Free Cash Flow

Loading free cash flow…

This chart tracks TSLA's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

TSLA Total Shares

Loading shares over time…

This chart tracks changes in TSLA's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

TSLA Net Leverage

Loading net leverage…

Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

TSLA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

Loading pe vs sector average…

This chart compares TSLA's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

TSLA Weekly Price

Loading weekly price…

This chart uses TSLA's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

TSLA Weekly Moving Averages

Loading weekly moving averages…

This chart compares TSLA's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

TSLA Yearly ROI

Loading yearly ROI…

Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.