Historical cheapness: current PE is 15.4× versus the full-history median of 9.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 23.3/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 27.6/100. The model applies a 24% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 11.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 13.2× PE and $20.1 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -0.2%, earnings +1.1%, operating margin -2.1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 3.6% of revenue. The business score is 46.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $20.06 of EPS and a 13.2× PE, suggesting about $264.64 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $264.71. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $12.82 of EPS and a 12.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $158.91 — 31% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.