Oversold

MCD

Valuation61/ 100
Cash flow & growth65/ 100
Upside potential56/ 100
Risk potential17/ 100

MCD's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and the outlook sends mixed signals.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 3.5%, from $265.00 to $255.69. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 0.7 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 20.5× versus the full-history median of 25× shown in the valuation table, producing 63.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 60.7/100. The model applies a 5.7% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 25.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 22.3× PE and $13.9 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +6.3%, earnings +5.5%, operating margin +0 percentage points. Free cash flow is 28% of revenue. The business score is 65.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $13.94 of EPS and a 22.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $310.56. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 23% upside, or about $310.61.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $10.62 of EPS and a 19.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $210.25 — 17% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

MCD vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE21x26x20% lower
PE percentile65088% lower
EPS$12.31$9.9224% higher
FCF$7.8B$6.6B18% higher
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MCD’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

MCD Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionTight

MCD’s outlook is mixed.

MCD PE Valuation

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This table applies MCD's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

MCD Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks MCD's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

MCD Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks MCD's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

MCD Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks MCD's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

MCD Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in MCD's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

MCD Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

MCD PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares MCD's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

MCD Weekly Price

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This chart uses MCD's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

MCD Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares MCD's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

MCD Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.