Oversold

MDA

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth48/ 100
Upside potential46/ 100
Risk potential45/ 100

MDA's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +38.7%, earnings -13.6%, operating margin -3.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is -8% of revenue. The business score is 47.8/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with typical movements among stocks in the same sector, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 37.8% upside, or about $39.92.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

Sector price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 40.7%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 44.7% downside, or about $16.02, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

MDA vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE51x56x9% lower
EPS$0.57$0.3469% higher
FCF-$107.4M$118.4M191% lower
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MDA’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

MDA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

MDA’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

MDA PE Valuation

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This table applies MDA's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

MDA Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks MDA's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

MDA Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks MDA's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

MDA Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks MDA's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

MDA Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in MDA's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

MDA Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

MDA PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares MDA's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

MDA Weekly Price

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This chart uses MDA's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

MDA Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares MDA's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

MDA Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

NVDA

Same as last week
Valuation92/ 100
Cash flow & growth93/ 100
Upside potential82/ 100
Risk potential18/ 100

NVDA's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth despite pressure on margins, though estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 27.6× versus the full-history median of 65.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 89.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 92/100. The model applies a 44.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 50.5× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 33.9× PE and $12.3 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +83.4%, earnings +125.4%, operating margin +7.1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 41.9% of revenue. The business score is 93.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $12.26 of EPS and a 33.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $415.41 — 90% above today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $7.09 of EPS and a 25.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $178.98 — 18% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

NVDA vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE28x74x63% lower
PE percentile0.65099% lower
EPS$7.91$1.54413% higher
FCF$127B$33B284% higher
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NVDA’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

NVDA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionWide

NVDA’s outlook is generally improving, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

NVDA PE Valuation

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This table applies NVDA's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

NVDA Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks NVDA's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

NVDA Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks NVDA's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

NVDA Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks NVDA's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

NVDA Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in NVDA's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

NVDA Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

NVDA PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares NVDA's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

NVDA Weekly Price

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This chart uses NVDA's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

NVDA Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares NVDA's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

NVDA Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.