Oversold

META

Valuation53/ 100
Cash flow & growth58/ 100
Upside potential46/ 100
Risk potential24/ 100

META's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 6.7%, from $578.02 to $616.77.

Valuation and price changes added 0.8 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 24.4× versus the full-history median of 26.7× shown in the valuation table, producing 56.1/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 52.8/100. The model applies a 4.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 26.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 26.1× PE and $29.8 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +27.7%, earnings -3.9%, operating margin -5.9 percentage points. Free cash flow is 18% of revenue. The business score is 57.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $29.84 of EPS and a 26.1× PE, suggesting a share price of about $778.17. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 20.1% upside, or about $778.28.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $22.79 of EPS and a 21.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $495.75 — 24% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

META vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE24x26x4% lower
PE percentile265047% lower
EPS$26.54$15.9566% higher
FCF$41B$38.5B7% higher
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META’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

META Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionModerate

META’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

META PE Valuation

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This table applies META's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

META Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks META's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

META Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks META's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

META Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks META's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

META Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in META's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

META Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

META PE vs Communication Services Sector

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This chart compares META's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Communication Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

META Weekly Price

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This chart uses META's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

META Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares META's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

META Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

MSGS

Same as last week
Valuation5/ 100
Cash flow & growth62/ 100
Upside potential27/ 100
Risk potential28/ 100

MSGS's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are somewhat mixed and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 1225.2× versus the full-history median of 85.6× shown in the valuation table, producing 5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 5/100. The model applies a 2.3% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 89.5× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 1104× PE and $0.4 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +11%, operating margin +1.1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 5% of revenue. The business score is 62.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $0.36 of EPS and a 1104× PE, suggesting about $392.29 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $450.88. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.27 of EPS and a 1068.1× PE, suggesting a share price of about $284.35 — 28% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

MSGS vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE1,225x184x567% higher
PE percentile10050100% higher
EPS$0.32-$0.21$0.53 higher
FCF$57.8M$65.7M12% lower
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MSGS’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

MSGS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsTurning negative
Forward revenueDecline
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

MSGS’s outlook is weakening, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

MSGS PE Valuation

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This table applies MSGS's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

MSGS Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks MSGS's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

MSGS Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks MSGS's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

MSGS Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks MSGS's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

MSGS Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in MSGS's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

MSGS Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

MSGS PE vs Communication Services Sector

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This chart compares MSGS's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Communication Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

MSGS Weekly Price

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This chart uses MSGS's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

MSGS Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares MSGS's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

MSGS Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.