Oversold

MGPI

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth27/ 100
Upside potential21/ 100
Risk potential62/ 100

MGPI's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are below averages and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue -18%, operating margin -57.1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 0.2% of revenue. The business score is 26.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 16.4% upside, or about $19.09.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

The 62.3% downside is driven by operating stress: the model assumes earnings fall 46.7% and the PE falls 29.2%. That gives $0.13 per share at a 49.3× PE, or about $6.19. Price swings alone suggest 34.4% downside.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

MGPI vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE70x21x237% higher
PE percentile995099% higher
EPS-$11.26$2.45560% lower
FCF$888K$42.4M98% lower
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MGPI’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

MGPI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsStrong decline
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

MGPI’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

MGPI PE Valuation

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This table applies MGPI's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

MGPI Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks MGPI's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

MGPI Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks MGPI's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

MGPI Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks MGPI's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

MGPI Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in MGPI's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

MGPI Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

MGPI PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector

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This chart compares MGPI's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Defensive sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

MGPI Weekly Price

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This chart uses MGPI's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

MGPI Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares MGPI's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

MGPI Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.