Oversold

MLR

Valuation8/ 100
Cash flow & growth33/ 100
Upside potential50/ 100
Risk potential30/ 100

MLR's valuation is expensive, below average fundamentals limit its appeal, while forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 14 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 1.2%, from $56.73 to $56.06.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 13.5 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 45.2× versus the full-history median of 12.7× shown in the valuation table, producing 6.8/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 8.3/100. The model applies a 43.5% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 13.2× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 39.1× PE and $1.9 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue -21%, earnings -66.1%, operating margin -2.8 percentage points. Free cash flow is 14.6% of revenue. The business score is 33/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $1.92 of EPS and a 39.1× PE, suggesting a share price of about $75.20. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 34.1% upside, or about $75.18.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.09 of EPS and a 36.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $39.52 — 30% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

MLR vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE45x14x216% higher
PE percentile10050100% higher
EPS$1.24$3.1461% lower
FCF$112.7M$10.1M1,016% higher
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MLR’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

MLR Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

MLR’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

MLR PE Valuation

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This table applies MLR's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

MLR Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks MLR's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

MLR Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks MLR's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

MLR Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks MLR's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

MLR Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in MLR's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

MLR Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

MLR PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares MLR's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

MLR Weekly Price

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This chart uses MLR's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

MLR Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares MLR's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

MLR Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.