Oversold

MOS

Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth38/ 100
Upside potential26/ 100
Risk potential52/ 100

MOS's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are below averages and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 14 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 9.5%, from $23.60 to $25.85. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 13.7 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue +5.5%, operating margin -5.7 percentage points. Free cash flow is -8% of revenue. The business score is 38.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 18.4% upside, or about $29.82.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

The 51.5% downside is driven by operating stress: the model assumes earnings fall 31.6% and the PE falls 29.1%. That gives $0.13 per share at a 94× PE, or about $12.22. Price swings alone suggest 31.2% downside.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

MOS vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE133x14x828% higher
PE percentile10050100% higher
EPS$0.19$3.7095% lower
FCF-$947.1M$808.8M217% lower
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MOS’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

MOS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsStrong decline
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

MOS’s outlook is weakening, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

MOS PE Valuation

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This table applies MOS's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

MOS Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks MOS's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

MOS Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks MOS's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

MOS Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks MOS's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

MOS Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in MOS's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

MOS Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

MOS PE vs Basic Materials Sector

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This chart compares MOS's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Basic Materials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

MOS Weekly Price

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This chart uses MOS's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

MOS Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares MOS's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

MOS Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.