Oversold

MSFT

Valuation67/ 100
Cash flow & growth77/ 100
Upside potential68/ 100
Risk potential19/ 100

MSFT's valuation is attractive, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth despite pressure on margins.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 2.7%, from $513.53 to $499.70. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 0.5 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 27.6× versus the full-history median of 33.2× shown in the valuation table, producing 62.4/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 66.8/100. The model applies a 19.4% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 33.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 31× PE and $22.9 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +17.8%, earnings +31.6%, operating margin +1.2 percentage points. Free cash flow is 20.2% of revenue. The business score is 76.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $22.94 of EPS and a 31× PE, suggesting a share price of about $711.69. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 43.6% upside, or about $711.72.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $15.73 of EPS and a 25.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $401.29 — 19% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

MSFT vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE28x32x14% lower
PE percentile235055% lower
EPS$17.95$10.5370% higher
FCF$67B$65.3B3% higher
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MSFT’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

MSFT Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionTight

MSFT’s outlook is generally improving, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

MSFT PE Valuation

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This table applies MSFT's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

MSFT Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks MSFT's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

MSFT Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks MSFT's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

MSFT Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks MSFT's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

MSFT Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in MSFT's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

MSFT Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

MSFT PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares MSFT's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

MSFT Weekly Price

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This chart uses MSFT's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

MSFT Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares MSFT's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

MSFT Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

SAIC

Valuation60/ 100
Cash flow & growth56/ 100
Upside potential38/ 100
Risk potential30/ 100

SAIC's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back.

Score change since last week

The score fell 2 points, mainly due to business results and financial strength. Price rose 0.6%, from $125.96 to $126.75. Reported annual EPS changed from $8.89 to $8.55.

Business results and financial strength subtracted 1.4 points. Valuation and price changes subtracted 0.8 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 15.2× versus the full-history median of 17.4× shown in the valuation table, producing 59.1/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 59.8/100. The model applies a 11.7% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 14.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 14.9× PE and $10.3 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -0.8%, earnings +3.5%, operating margin +0.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is 8.4% of revenue. The business score is 55.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $10.30 of EPS and a 14.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $153.60. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 18.2% upside, or about $153.54.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $7.29 of EPS and a 12.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $91.13 — 30% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

SAIC vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE15x18x14% lower
PE percentile315039% lower
EPS$8.55$6.2736% higher
FCF$619M$485.3M28% higher
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SAIC’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

SAIC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

SAIC’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

SAIC PE Valuation

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This table applies SAIC's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

SAIC Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks SAIC's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

SAIC Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks SAIC's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

SAIC Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks SAIC's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

SAIC Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in SAIC's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

SAIC Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

SAIC PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares SAIC's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

SAIC Weekly Price

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This chart uses SAIC's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

SAIC Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares SAIC's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

SAIC Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.