Oversold

MSFT

Valuation67/ 100
Cash flow & growth77/ 100
Upside potential68/ 100
Risk potential19/ 100

MSFT's valuation is attractive, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth despite pressure on margins.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 2.7%, from $513.53 to $499.70. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 0.5 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 27.6× versus the full-history median of 33.2× shown in the valuation table, producing 62.4/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 66.8/100. The model applies a 19.4% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 33.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 31× PE and $22.9 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +17.8%, earnings +31.6%, operating margin +1.2 percentage points. Free cash flow is 20.2% of revenue. The business score is 76.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $22.94 of EPS and a 31× PE, suggesting a share price of about $711.69. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 43.6% upside, or about $711.72.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $15.73 of EPS and a 25.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $401.29 — 19% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

MSFT vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE28x32x14% lower
PE percentile235055% lower
EPS$17.95$10.5370% higher
FCF$67B$65.3B3% higher
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MSFT’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

MSFT Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionTight

MSFT’s outlook is generally improving, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

MSFT PE Valuation

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This table applies MSFT's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

MSFT Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks MSFT's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

MSFT Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks MSFT's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

MSFT Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks MSFT's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

MSFT Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in MSFT's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

MSFT Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

MSFT PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares MSFT's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

MSFT Weekly Price

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This chart uses MSFT's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

MSFT Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares MSFT's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

MSFT Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

SNPS

Valuation26/ 100
Cash flow & growth61/ 100
Upside potential41/ 100
Risk potential35/ 100

SNPS's valuation is somewhat elevated, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Score change since last week

The score fell 7 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 11.0%, from $442.61 to $393.84.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 7.9 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Estimated operating-earnings valuation: current PE is 306.8x versus 57.7x in comparable estimated history. The model caps earnings at operating profit after interest, assuming proportional tax and per-share effects. This is an estimate, not a verified investment-gain adjustment.

Reported EPS and PE remain in the valuation table. The same estimate is applied to historical earnings and eligible price scenarios. Its contribution to the score is limited by the available evidence; it does not identify all non-recurring items. Comparable history: 92 weeks.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +46.3%, operating margin -7.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is 29.6% of revenue. The business score is 61.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $1.68 of EPS and a 288.6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $483.75. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 21.7% upside, or about $483.61.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.11 of EPS and a 238.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $265.33 — 35% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

SNPS vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE69x56x24% higher
PE percentile865072% higher
EPS$5.72$7.6825% lower
FCF$2.8B$1.4B97% higher
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SNPS’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

SNPS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionTight

SNPS’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

SNPS PE Valuation

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This table applies SNPS's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

SNPS Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks SNPS's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

SNPS Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks SNPS's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

SNPS Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks SNPS's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

SNPS Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in SNPS's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

SNPS Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

SNPS PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares SNPS's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

SNPS Weekly Price

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This chart uses SNPS's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

SNPS Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares SNPS's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

SNPS Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.