Oversold

MTB

Same as last week
Valuation42/ 100
Cash flow & growth62/ 100
Upside potential37/ 100
Risk potential28/ 100

MTB's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and the outlook sends mixed signals, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 12.7× versus the full-history median of 11.2× shown in the valuation table, producing 41.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 41.5/100. The model applies a 10% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 12.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 12.4× PE and $22.5 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -5.8%, earnings +22.8%, operating margin +6.8 percentage points. The business score is 62.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $22.46 of EPS and a 12.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $279.57. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 16.6% upside, or about $279.64.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $16.20 of EPS and a 10.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $173.59 — 28% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

MTB vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE13x11x18% higher
PE percentile775054% higher
EPS$18.96$13.7838% higher
FCF$3.7B$3.2B17% higher
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MTB’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

MTB Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStable
Forward earningsStable
Forward revenueDecline
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

MTB’s outlook is mixed, with declining sales expectations a concern.

MTB PE Valuation

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This table applies MTB's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

MTB Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks MTB's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

MTB Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks MTB's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

MTB Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks MTB's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

MTB Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in MTB's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

MTB Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

MTB PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares MTB's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

MTB Weekly Price

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This chart uses MTB's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

MTB Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares MTB's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

MTB Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.