Oversold

MTR

Valuation28/ 100
Cash flow & growth47/ 100
Upside potential33/ 100
Risk potential48/ 100

MTR's valuation is somewhat elevated and fundamentals are somewhat mixed.

Score change since last week

The score fell 7 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 16.1%, from $2.24 to $2.60. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 6.8 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 14× versus the full-history median of 11.2× shown in the valuation table, producing 35.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 28.1/100. The model applies a -3.3% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 16.4× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 14.6× PE and $0.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +0.1%, earnings -13.1%, operating margin -0.3 percentage points. The business score is 46.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $0.20 of EPS and a 14.6× PE, suggesting about $2.98 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $2.99. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.13 of EPS and a 10.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $1.36 — 48% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

MTR vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE14x19x27% lower
PE percentile625025% higher
EPS$0.19$0.7475% lower
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MTR’s earnings are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

MTR Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
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MTR PE Valuation

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This table applies MTR's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

MTR Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks MTR's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

MTR Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks MTR's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

MTR Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks MTR's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

MTR Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in MTR's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

MTR Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

MTR PE vs Energy Sector

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This chart compares MTR's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Energy sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

MTR Weekly Price

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This chart uses MTR's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

MTR Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares MTR's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

MTR Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.