Oversold

NCMI

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth65/ 100
Upside potential42/ 100
Risk potential41/ 100

NCMI's valuation appears fair while fundamentals provide solid support and forward estimates point to a return to profit and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +5.8%, operating margin +2.9 percentage points. Free cash flow is 8.7% of revenue. The business score is 65.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 30.1% upside, or about $3.23.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 25.6%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 40.9% downside, or about $1.47, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

NCMI vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE2.6x4.6x44% lower
PE percentile595017% higher
EPS-$0.09$2.39104% lower
FCF$21.6M-$20.4M+$42M
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NCMI’s earnings are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

NCMI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsTurning positive
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

NCMI’s outlook is generally improving, supported by an expected return to profitability.

NCMI PE Valuation

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This table applies NCMI's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

NCMI Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks NCMI's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

NCMI Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks NCMI's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

NCMI Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks NCMI's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

NCMI Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in NCMI's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

NCMI Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

NCMI PE vs Communication Services Sector

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This chart compares NCMI's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Communication Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

NCMI Weekly Price

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This chart uses NCMI's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

NCMI Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares NCMI's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

NCMI Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.