Oversold

NFLX

Valuation58/ 100
Cash flow & growth69/ 100
Upside potential48/ 100
Risk potential29/ 100

NFLX's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth despite pressure on margins.

Score change since last week

The score rose 10 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 4.2%, from $81.72 to $78.25. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 9.2 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Estimated operating-earnings valuation: current PE is 29.7x versus 46.1x in comparable estimated history. The model caps earnings at operating profit after interest, assuming proportional tax and per-share effects. This is an estimate, not a verified investment-gain adjustment.

Reported EPS and PE remain in the valuation table. The same estimate is applied to historical earnings and eligible price scenarios. Its contribution to the score is limited by the available evidence; it does not identify all non-recurring items. Comparable history: 40 weeks.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +16%, operating margin +0.2 percentage points. Free cash flow is 22.7% of revenue. The business score is 68.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $3.33 of EPS and a 33.1× PE, suggesting a share price of about $110.52. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 42.8% upside, or about $110.53.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.29 of EPS and a 28× PE, suggesting a share price of about $64.10 — 29% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

NFLX vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE24x49x51% lower
PE percentile115079% lower
EPS$3.18$1.43123% higher
FCF$11B$4.6B137% higher
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NFLX’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

NFLX Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionTight

NFLX’s outlook is generally improving, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

NFLX PE Valuation

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This table applies NFLX's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

NFLX Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks NFLX's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

NFLX Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks NFLX's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

NFLX Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks NFLX's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

NFLX Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in NFLX's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

NFLX Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

NFLX PE vs Communication Services Sector

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This chart compares NFLX's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Communication Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

NFLX Weekly Price

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This chart uses NFLX's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

NFLX Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares NFLX's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

NFLX Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

SIRI

Valuation69/ 100
Cash flow & growth72/ 100
Upside potential31/ 100
Risk potential34/ 100

SIRI's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score rose 4 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 1.6%, from $28.54 to $28.99.

Valuation and price changes added 4.6 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 11.5× versus the full-history median of 16.5× shown in the valuation table, producing 72.7/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 68.7/100. The model applies a 2.2% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 11.4× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 11.5× PE and $2.8 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +0.4%, operating margin +38.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is 18% of revenue. The business score is 71.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $2.81 of EPS and a 11.5× PE, suggesting about $32.17 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $33.52. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.13 of EPS and a 9.1× PE, suggesting a share price of about $19.35 — 34% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

SIRI vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE11x49x77% lower
PE percentile255051% lower
EPS$2.54$1.12127% higher
FCF$1.5B$1.3B16% higher
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SIRI’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

SIRI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

SIRI’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

SIRI PE Valuation

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This table applies SIRI's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

SIRI Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks SIRI's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

SIRI Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks SIRI's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

SIRI Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks SIRI's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

SIRI Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in SIRI's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

SIRI Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

SIRI PE vs Communication Services Sector

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This chart compares SIRI's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Communication Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

SIRI Weekly Price

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This chart uses SIRI's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

SIRI Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares SIRI's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

SIRI Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.