Oversold

NGVC

Valuation46/ 100
Cash flow & growth57/ 100
Upside potential47/ 100
Risk potential25/ 100

NGVC's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and the outlook is broadly stable, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 1.6%, from $27.48 to $27.93. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 0.3 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 13.6× versus the full-history median of 14× shown in the valuation table, producing 52.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 46.4/100. The model applies a 1.1% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 14.5× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 14× PE and $2.3 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +2%, earnings +9.6%, operating margin +0.3 percentage points. Free cash flow is 4.3% of revenue. The business score is 56.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $2.30 of EPS and a 14× PE, suggesting about $32.11 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $32.12. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.64 of EPS and a 12.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $20.83 — 25% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

NGVC vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE14x15x12% lower
PE percentile425016% lower
EPS$2.06$1.2367% higher
FCF$57.1M$32.3M77% higher
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NGVC’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

NGVC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStable
Forward earningsStable
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

NGVC’s outlook is generally stable, though analyst coverage is limited.

NGVC PE Valuation

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This table applies NGVC's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

NGVC Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks NGVC's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

NGVC Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks NGVC's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

NGVC Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks NGVC's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

NGVC Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in NGVC's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

NGVC Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

NGVC PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector

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This chart compares NGVC's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Defensive sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

NGVC Weekly Price

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This chart uses NGVC's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

NGVC Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares NGVC's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

NGVC Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.