Oversold

NHC

Valuation33/ 100
Cash flow & growth69/ 100
Upside potential30/ 100
Risk potential35/ 100

NHC's valuation is somewhat elevated and fundamentals are above averages.

Score change since last week

The score fell 5 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 1.8%, from $222.70 to $218.64.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 4.9 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 25.3× versus the full-history median of 20.8× shown in the valuation table, producing 36.9/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 32.7/100. The model applies a 2.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 20.8× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 23.8× PE and $10.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +6.9%, earnings +32.5%, operating margin +1.6 percentage points. Free cash flow is 9.4% of revenue. The business score is 68.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $10.16 of EPS and a 23.8× PE, suggesting about $242.02 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $258.14. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $6.91 of EPS and a 21.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $146.87 — 35% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

NHC vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE25x22x17% higher
PE percentile685035% higher
EPS$8.89$5.3666% higher
FCF$146.5M$71.7M104% higher
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NHC’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

NHC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
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NHC PE Valuation

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This table applies NHC's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

NHC Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks NHC's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

NHC Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks NHC's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

NHC Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks NHC's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

NHC Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in NHC's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

NHC Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

NHC PE vs Healthcare Sector

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This chart compares NHC's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Healthcare sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

NHC Weekly Price

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This chart uses NHC's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

NHC Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares NHC's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

NHC Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.