Oversold

NIO

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth64/ 100
Upside potential49/ 100
Risk potential45/ 100

NIO's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to narrowing losses and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +63.7%, operating margin +29 percentage points. The business score is 63.5/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 43.2% upside, or about $5.28.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 27.7%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 45.3% downside, or about $2.02, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

NIO vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
EPS-$0.28-$1.25$0.97 higher
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NIO’s earnings are above their historical averages.

NIO Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsLoss narrowing
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

NIO’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

NIO PE Valuation

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This table applies NIO's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

NIO Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks NIO's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

NIO Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks NIO's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

NIO Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks NIO's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

NIO Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in NIO's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

NIO Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares NIO's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

NIO Weekly Price

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This chart uses NIO's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

NIO Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares NIO's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

NIO Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

RCL

Valuation64/ 100
Cash flow & growth61/ 100
Upside potential70/ 100
Risk potential18/ 100

RCL's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 5.1%, from $279.41 to $265.19. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 0.9 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 16.1× versus the full-history median of 19.1× shown in the valuation table, producing 61.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 64.2/100. The model applies a 15.9% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 19× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 19× PE and $20.1 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +8.7%, earnings +21.5%, operating margin +0.9 percentage points. Free cash flow is -2.2% of revenue. The business score is 61/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $20.12 of EPS and a 19× PE, suggesting a share price of about $381.96. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 46.8% upside, or about $381.89.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $14.03 of EPS and a 15.1× PE, suggesting a share price of about $212.26 — 18% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

RCL vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE16x22x27% lower
PE percentile155069% lower
EPS$16.18-$3.62$19.80 higher
FCF-$416M-$991.6M+$575.6M
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RCL’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

RCL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionTight

RCL’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

RCL PE Valuation

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This table applies RCL's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

RCL Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks RCL's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

RCL Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks RCL's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

RCL Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks RCL's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

RCL Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in RCL's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

RCL Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

RCL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares RCL's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

RCL Weekly Price

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This chart uses RCL's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

RCL Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares RCL's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

RCL Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.