Oversold

NKE

Valuation85/ 100
Cash flow & growth53/ 100
Upside potential74/ 100
Risk potential19/ 100

NKE's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are below averages, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 3.0%, from $39.60 to $38.40. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 0.4 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 17.5× versus the full-history median of 30.7× shown in the valuation table, producing 81.4/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 85.2/100. The model applies a 30.2% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 28.8× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 20.6× PE and $2.9 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +0.2%, earnings -2.8%, operating margin +0.2 percentage points. Free cash flow is 4.7% of revenue. The business score is 52.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $2.95 of EPS and a 20.6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $60.65 — 64% above today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.82 of EPS and a 16.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $29.83 — 19% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

NKE vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE18x34x49% lower
PE percentile0.95098% lower
EPS$2.10$3.0331% lower
FCF$2.2B$4.6B53% lower
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NKE’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

NKE Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionWide

NKE’s outlook is weakening, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

NKE PE Valuation

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This table applies NKE's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

NKE Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks NKE's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

NKE Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks NKE's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

NKE Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks NKE's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

NKE Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in NKE's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

NKE Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares NKE's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

NKE Weekly Price

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This chart uses NKE's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

NKE Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares NKE's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

NKE Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

SBUX

Same as last week
Valuation20/ 100
Cash flow & growth50/ 100
Upside potential38/ 100
Risk potential29/ 100

SBUX's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 56.8× versus the full-history median of 30.4× shown in the valuation table, producing 16.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 20.2/100. The model applies a 25% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 34.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 49.4× PE and $2.3 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +4.5%, earnings -25%, operating margin -1.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is 9.5% of revenue. The business score is 49.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $2.34 of EPS and a 49.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $115.47. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 16.9% upside, or about $115.43.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.52 of EPS and a 46.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $70.53 — 29% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

SBUX vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE57x46x23% higher
PE percentile775054% higher
EPS$1.74$2.6233% lower
FCF$3.6B$3.1B18% higher
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SBUX’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

SBUX Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionModerate

SBUX’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

SBUX PE Valuation

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This table applies SBUX's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

SBUX Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks SBUX's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

SBUX Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks SBUX's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

SBUX Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks SBUX's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

SBUX Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in SBUX's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

SBUX Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

SBUX PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares SBUX's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

SBUX Weekly Price

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This chart uses SBUX's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

SBUX Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares SBUX's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

SBUX Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.